Here's Why Mark Carney Is Winning

There are copious lessons to be learned here by both the Sask Party and Saskatchewan NDP.

I’ve never seen anyone exploit the current political landscape in Canada quite like Mark Carney, in the few short weeks since he announced he was running for leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada.

Carney is deftly outmaneuvering his rivals and appealing to a broader cohort of Canadians than either Justin Trudeau or Pierre Poilievre.

He has even managed to steal the “change” message from Pierre Poilievre.

Carney has managed to capitalize on the anti-incumbent sentiment promoted feverishly by the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC)… despite the fact he is vying to be the incumbent. Instead Carney has positioned himself as an outsider, despite his ties to Trudeau as an economic advisor, by emphasizing his real-world credentials as former Governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England.

Positioning Mark Carney as an outsider with insider credentials is a masterstroke.

Mark Carney is clearly the best candidate to stand up to Donald Trump’s aggression. His pledge to hit NATO’s two percent defence spending target by 2030, paired with a promise to redirect military dollars domestically, has tapped into rising multi-party Canadian patriotism. He’s turning a foreign policy crisis with the United States into a unifying national narrative while signalling he’s a problem-solver.

It’s beautiful (pretty sure it’s also Gerry Butts, who’s a political genius).

Saskatchewan leans heavily on exports making it vulnerable to external pressures. We need a steady hand who understands markets and can protect the province.

Mark Carney’s campaign is demonstrating precisely the kind of technically-difficult, but very doable leadership narrative that neither the Saskatchewan NDP or the Saskatchewan Party have been able to pull off in recent history.

Carney’s campaign understands the need for broader appeal - simple math if you want to win. Launching his campaign in Edmonton wasn’t just a nod to Carney’s roots—it was a deliberate play to connect with Western Canada.

He’s avoided divisive culture war traps.

Has that not been refreshing?

Carney’s pitch is simple: “I’ll fix the economy.” His promise to build the “fastest-growing economy in the G7” is bold, but it sticks because it’s vague enough to project hope without tying him to specifics that can be attacked.

Bold, vague hope without specifics - frankly, the perfect communications strategy on any front. It’s tough to pull off and most political parties are neither skilled nor disciplined enough to execute it.

That’s why you see Saskatchewan NDP leader Carla Beck flailing at the moment.

I mean, what does she stand for?

Anyone know?

I guarantee you know what Carney stands for, however, because his messaging is disciplined and aspirational. He’s coalition-building - pulling moderate Liberals, disillusioned NDP voters, and centre-conservatives who aren’t into the “far-right” vibe (think urban professionals who just want stability over slogans and theatrics).

Coalition-building across ideological lines is trickier in the Sask Party context. The Sask Party’s membership, dominated by its rural-conservative base, is not as varied in demographic as the Liberal Party’s. Re-expanding the Sask Party tent means courting back urban Sask Party members in Saskatoon and Regina who’ve felt neglected by the party’s rural focus and its lurch into the right-wing ditch.

A disciplined, consistent refusal to take a divisive position on social issues is the only way any Sask Party leadership candidate will prevent themselves from alienating any faction.

Carney’s gaining traction among voters who are so f*cking tired of trying to digest ideological extremes, by executing a highly-disciplined campaign that is pragmatic, not ideological; forward-looking and focused on competence.